Weather & Elections
Can the weather affect the outcome of elections? According to researchers at the University of Pittsburgh, the answer is yes.
In a 2005 study, researchers looked at the weather across the country during presidential elections from 1948 to 2000. Obviously, voter turnout is down when the weather is bad, but how does that affect who wins? These researchers say in general, fair weather on election day can mean a win for Democrats, while bad weather can mean a win for Republicans. The main reason is that undecided voters are less likely to fight bad weather to head to the polls, and researchers say those undecided voters would’ve been more likely to choose the Democratic candidate.
Because of this, they concluded that Republicans got a 2.5% boost for every inch of rain above average for election day, and an extra .6% of the vote for every 1 inch of snow above average.
Obviously though, this will only make a difference in a close election. The Pittsburgh researchers think the weather might’ve changed the outcome of two particularly close elections. In 1960, they beleive John F. Kennedy benefited from fair weather in the close race with Nixon, and in 2000, they say the rain in Florida may’ve worked against Al Gore.
So how about this year? There are two storms impacting the U.S. today. The first, a low pressure system off the East coast bringing rain to the Mid-Atlantic states. The second, a storm moving across the Pacific Northwest. Both could keep voters away, but in general, neither is considered a major storm that will cripple transportation or bring extreme cold. With most of the country experiencing fair weather today, that would imply a victory for Democrats. However, since many voters cast their ballot before election day this year, weather may not be as big a factor as in those elections researchers looked at.